Predictions and Plans

So I have this hilly little sprint called the Patriot this weekend.  Actually, it's billed as the most difficult (or one of the most difficult, depending on who you ask) sprint in the state.  Lucky me!

Predictions:

I'm going to estimate to the nearest minute, not going to fiddle with seconds

• Swim (400m serpentine pool swim) - 9:00.  This is roughly my time from 2008.  When I do a straight 400m swim, I can do it faster, but this accounts for lane changes.  This is faster than what I did at my last tri, because the seeded swim start should mean very little jockeying for position in the pool (theoretically, faster swimmers in front of me, slower ones behind me)
• Transitions (T1+T2 combined) - 4:00.  In 2008, at this event, my transitions took 4 minutes.  A few weeks ago at a similar event, my transitions took 3 minutes.  I expect something closer to 2008 b/c  a few weeks ago we did a reverse which has faster transitions due to starting in running shoes.
• Bike (15.5 mi hilly route) - 1:06:00.  In 2008 this took me 01:11:00.  My cycling is a bit better since then, but not as good as I'd like.  I rode the course this weekend and it took me ~1:06:00 ride time not counting a few stops to check the map.  This lines up with my performance at my recent tri, so I think it's a good estimate.
• Run (3.1 mi hilly mixed terrain) - 35:00.  In 2008 it took me 38:00.  A few weeks ago, with the run first, I did it in 31:00.  I think I'm going to be tired and slow after the hilly bike ride, so I'm expecting something in between, but a little closer to the 2008 numbers.

What does it add up to?  If my predictions are close, I'm looking at a 01:55:00 finish vs. 2:02:00 from 2008, with most of the improvement coming from the bike.  If I can actually pull that off, I'll be happy.

Plans

• I will freeze half my bottle the night before, and fill it the rest of the way up race morning.
• I will arrive at the race site shortly after transition opens to get good parking and not be rushed.
• I will wear my new tri shorts & a grey sports bra for the swim, and put on a bright green or yellow shirt so that I'm highly visible on the bike route (want to be sure the cars can see me!)
• I will swim easy; I should be able to pull off a 9:00 400 without over-exerting myself.  Save energy for the bike and run.
• I will hustle through transitions; no dawdling!
• I will mount my Garmin on my bike for real time speed/distance feedback and use the Timex sports watch on my wrist for the rest of the race.
• I will smile and have fun and thank the volunteers who are out there.

I think that about covers it!