Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Predictions and Plans

So I have this hilly little sprint called the Patriot this weekend.  Actually, it's billed as the most difficult (or one of the most difficult, depending on who you ask) sprint in the state.  Lucky me!


I'm going to estimate to the nearest minute, not going to fiddle with seconds
  • Swim (400m serpentine pool swim) - 9:00.  This is roughly my time from 2008.  When I do a straight 400m swim, I can do it faster, but this accounts for lane changes.  This is faster than what I did at my last tri, because the seeded swim start should mean very little jockeying for position in the pool (theoretically, faster swimmers in front of me, slower ones behind me)
  • Transitions (T1+T2 combined) - 4:00.  In 2008, at this event, my transitions took 4 minutes.  A few weeks ago at a similar event, my transitions took 3 minutes.  I expect something closer to 2008 b/c  a few weeks ago we did a reverse which has faster transitions due to starting in running shoes.
  • Bike (15.5 mi hilly route) - 1:06:00.  In 2008 this took me 01:11:00.  My cycling is a bit better since then, but not as good as I'd like.  I rode the course this weekend and it took me ~1:06:00 ride time not counting a few stops to check the map.  This lines up with my performance at my recent tri, so I think it's a good estimate.
  • Run (3.1 mi hilly mixed terrain) - 35:00.  In 2008 it took me 38:00.  A few weeks ago, with the run first, I did it in 31:00.  I think I'm going to be tired and slow after the hilly bike ride, so I'm expecting something in between, but a little closer to the 2008 numbers.
What does it add up to?  If my predictions are close, I'm looking at a 01:55:00 finish vs. 2:02:00 from 2008, with most of the improvement coming from the bike.  If I can actually pull that off, I'll be happy.

  • I will freeze half my bottle the night before, and fill it the rest of the way up race morning.
  • I will arrive at the race site shortly after transition opens to get good parking and not be rushed.
  • I will wear my new tri shorts & a grey sports bra for the swim, and put on a bright green or yellow shirt so that I'm highly visible on the bike route (want to be sure the cars can see me!)
  • I will swim easy; I should be able to pull off a 9:00 400 without over-exerting myself.  Save energy for the bike and run.
  • I will hustle through transitions; no dawdling!
  • I will mount my Garmin on my bike for real time speed/distance feedback and use the Timex sports watch on my wrist for the rest of the race.
  • I will smile and have fun and thank the volunteers who are out there.
I think that about covers it!


  1. Sounds like a great plan with reachable goals! Have fun!

  2. I think you have a solid plan there, great luck!

  3. Sounds like a plan that cannot go wrong!

  4. Good luck Lisa! Sounds like you have it all figured out.

  5. Oh yes! All the best and have lots of fun! You will be great!

  6. Have a great race and importantly...have a great time and experience!

  7. Ah!!! So exciting!! You sound so prepared and like you are going to have a great time!

  8. Looks like you're all set - good luck!

  9. I love plans! and this one sounds like a good one!! have fun!

  10. Good plans!
    I find that thanking the volunteers always gives me a little boost. I just run with more pep after.

    Good luck!

  11. Good luck! I'm sure you'll meet, and maybe even exceed, those predictions!

  12. That plan sounds good! You can do it! And a big Yeah! for the cycling improvements! Good on ya! Now go out there and make sure you have FUN!

  13. Good luck this weekend! I like your plan. Esp freezing half a bottle, I"m going to have to remember that one.

  14. Sounds like a very good plan. Good luck!!

  15. What a great time you will have!
    Well planned, best wishes.

  16. Good luck for the race :) .... Like your timings.... I always do 3 different times for each discipline.... "whooping best", "expected", "acceptable if it all goes horrid!" :)

    Have fun!

  17. Go Lisa!!!!

    You seem quite prepared!

  18. do you ever wonder if we are all totally crazy signing up for events that are the toughest or hilliest or craziest :)

    I hope you have a great time and see all your hard work pay off!

  19. Sounds like you've thought this through well!
    Good luck and have fun!